Jobs| Four salient points in the September 2021 US jobs report

For the second month in a row, US job growth was disappointing in September, with more than 300,000 jobs being written off by many economists. Read more

Four salient points in the September 2021 US jobs report

But the 41-page Bureau of Labor Statistics report contains a wide range of US job market data, and there is plenty of room for half-filled and half-empty camps.

Picture of a delivery worker on the street in New York City, New York, USA on September 23, 2021.

Not surprisingly, President Joe Biden did his part with the first group. “Increase jobs, increase wages, reduce unemployment. This is growth,” he said after the report was released.

Here are four data points that stood out.

1.Decrease in unemployment rate.

Unemployment fell for the third month in a row and exceeded expectations. Now at 4.8 percent, it is 10 percentage points south of its peak in April 2020. Most economists agree that this is an incomplete measure of the health of the labor market, but it still has a lot of factors at the disposal of both the average person and the general policy maker. The economy is improving at this rate. Most of which do not appear after the recession. In fact, the latest level is already where Federal Reserve officials predicted it would be by the end of the year.

2.No $ 300 a week.

Among many high-profile people in the September report, it jumped off the page: the number of long-term unemployed, or out of work for more than half a year, fell the most in the past month, 560, 000 people left them Why Rules? Simple – run out of money. The $ 300 a week federal standard for standard state unemployment benefits ended with the start of the month. The emergency program has been under way since the beginning of the summer, when 26 of the most Republican-led states quickly reaped the benefits. But the final took place yesterday last month. The question now is how many of them will return to the job market in the coming months.

3.No $ 300 a week.

Among many high-profile people in the September report, it jumped off the page: the number of long-term unemployed, or out of work for more than half a year, fell the most in the past month, 560, 000 people left them Why Rules? Simple – run out of money. The $ 300 a week federal standard for standard state unemployment benefits ended with the start of the month. The emergency program has been under way since the beginning of the summer, when 26 of the most Republican-led states quickly reaped the benefits. But the final took place yesterday last month. The question now is how many of them will return to the job market in the coming months.

4.Wage inflation?

There is no shortage of stories about employers bringing people back to work with higher salaries, but given how much data the Corona virus is making during epidemics, it is difficult to find evidence of a real emerging trend. Is. The Labor Department’s average hourly earnings figures, however, have settled in the last half year and a new – and now more – growth pattern appears to be emerging. The average hourly wage rose 0.6 percent last month – again than expected – and has risen an average of 0.5 percent per month over the past six months. This is almost double the monthly wage that prevailed before the epidemic.

5.Seasonal adjustment

More schools reopened this year than a year ago when vaccines were still in development, and many public schools began a year of hybrid or fully online instruction. So why was there a 144,000 drop in public school jobs last month? Answer: It did not happen. And it’s all a matter of “seasonal adjustment.” September is usually the strongest month for recruitment in US public schools, with about 8,850,000 jobs added at the beginning of each academic year from 2000 to 2019. Below this trend – throwing the Labor Department’s seasonal adjustment model.

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